The jackpot bars are drawn at full length on purpose — at true scale they'd be invisible. A single ticket's chance of the top prize is roughly picking one specific second out of the next nine years. That's not a reason never to play. It's a reason to play only with money you've already decided you can lose.
Both Powerball and Mega Millions are drawn across dozens of states at once, which is how the jackpots grow so large — everyone's ticket money flows into one pool. You win the top prize only by matching every number, including the special colored ball.
Mega Millions ran its first big overhaul in years. The ticket price more than doubled from $2 to $5, but the game folded its old optional "Megaplier" into every ticket as a built-in 2×–10× multiplier, dropped one gold ball (25 down to 24) to slightly improve the odds, and raised the starting jackpot to $50 million. Powerball, by contrast, has kept its $2 price across most of the country since 2012 and left its format unchanged.
People assume matching all five white balls wins the jackpot. It doesn't — you also need the red Powerball or gold Mega Ball. Matching five white balls without the colored ball pays $1 million in Powerball, which is life-changing, but it is not the jackpot. This one extra ball is what pushes the odds from the low millions into the hundreds of millions.
Every prize tier below is a real, fixed probability — the lottery publishes them, and they don't change based on the jackpot size or how many people play. A bigger jackpot doesn't improve your chances; it only changes what you'd win.
| Match | Prize | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5 + Powerball | Jackpot | 1 : 292,201,338 |
| 5 white balls | $1,000,000 | 1 : 11,688,054 |
| 4 + Powerball | $50,000 | 1 : 913,129 |
| 4 white balls | $100 | 1 : 36,525 |
| 3 + Powerball | $100 | 1 : 14,494 |
| 1 + Powerball | $4 | 1 : 92 |
| Powerball only | $4 | 1 : 38 |
No number is "due." The balls have no memory, so a number that hasn't come up in fifty draws is exactly as likely as any other next time. Hot-and-cold charts describe the past and predict nothing. Buying more tickets genuinely does improve your odds — but from vanishingly small to slightly-less-vanishingly small, while doubling what you spend. The only strategy that reliably changes your outcome is deciding your budget before you buy.
The one thing picking your own numbers can do: if you win a jackpot with an unusual combination, you're less likely to split it. Popular picks — birthdays (which cap at 31), sequences like 1-2-3-4-5, and patterns drawn on the slip — get chosen by thousands of others. It won't help you win, but it can affect how much you keep.
The games are national, but lotteries are run state by state — so where you buy changes the fine print in ways worth knowing before you win.
Always confirm current rules with your official state lottery before playing or claiming. This guide points you in the right direction; it isn't a substitute for the official source in your state.
The headline numbers are annuity totals — paid out slowly over 29 years. Almost every winner takes the lump sum instead, which is far smaller. Here's the top of the all-time list.
Powerball has crossed the billion-dollar mark several times, and Mega Millions has done it six times since 2002. The reason the pots keep growing is arithmetic: as odds got longer over the years — Powerball's jackpot odds went from 1 in 175 million to 1 in 292 million after a 2015 redesign — jackpots roll over more often without a winner, and each rollover stacks the next one higher.
The advertised jackpot is rarely what a winner banks. Two decisions shrink it fast — how you take it, and taxes.
Take the annuity and you get the full headline figure, paid in 30 graduated installments over 29 years. Take the lump sum — which the overwhelming majority of winners do — and you get the jackpot's present cash value, often around 40–55% of the headline number. For a $1 billion advertised jackpot, the cash option might be roughly $450–500 million before a dollar of tax.
Lottery winnings are ordinary income. The federal government withholds 24% up front, but a jackpot pushes you into the top federal bracket of 37%, so you'll typically owe more at filing. On top of that, most states tax winnings too — anywhere from zero to double digits depending on where you bought. It's common for a headline jackpot to reach the winner as less than a third of the advertised figure. None of this is a reason not to claim a prize — it's a reason to hire a tax professional and an attorney before you come forward.
This is general information, not tax or legal advice. Real numbers depend on your state, your filing situation, and current law — talk to a licensed professional.
The lottery is entertainment with a known, heavy cost. That's fine if the ticket buys you a bit of daydream — a problem if it's standing in for a budget or a way out of a hole.
The National Problem Gambling Helpline is available any time, in every U.S. state, at no cost. You can call or text.
You can also chat online at ncpgambling.org. Most states also run a voluntary self-exclusion program — ask your state lottery or the helpline how to enroll. More detail on our responsible gaming page.